Consultancy: Peace III Exploratory Systems Analysis: Supporting Positive Resilience in Kenya’s Boarder Communities at Pact World

Background

CONTEXT

Peace III is a USAID funded project implemented by Pact in coordination with twenty local NGOs and one other international partner (Mercy Corps) across the Kenyan boarder with Somalia, Ethiopia and Uganda borders. The goal of the project is to contribute to stability in the Horn of Africa Region by strengthening the horizontal and vertical linkages within and between local, national and regional conflict management actors. The program has been operating since April 2014 and is due to end in September 2019.

THE PROBLEM

Since the program began in 2014, anecdotal evidence has emerged that the program has had positive impacts beyond its core peace-focused objectives, on a broader range of development and resilience-related themes. This anecdotal evidence has been further substantiated by the Outcome Harvesting report, completed in June 2018, and the Mid-Cycle Portfolio Review (MPR), completed in November 2018. However, PEACE III still lacks clear and compelling evidence that the increased stability supported by the program has generated greater change in the overall status quo and strengthened the positive resilience of the targeted borderland areas, as previous evaluations did not set out to construct a larger story around impact and sustainability.

Additionally, through implementing the PEACE III program, Pact has developed an intricate understanding of the complex ecosystems in which borderlands sit and believes that future programming can be better designed to respond to this complexity. However, the team lacks a clear theoretical framework and evidence base from which to advocate for unique approaches to working in borderland areas.

Given this lack of robust evidence on 1) PEACE III’s wider impact and 2) the complexity of working in the borderland areas, the Pact Kenya team would like to commission an exploratory systems analysis to generate the evidence needed to respond to the two key problems stated above.

Objectives:

The wider objectives of the exploratory systems analysis are therefore to:

1. Provide a robust analysis of the wider impact of the PEACE III program: this study will draw upon evidence from previous evaluations and from program-generated M&E data, combine with deep dive fieldwork in at least one borderland community, to produce a compelling story of change beyond anecdotal evidence.

2. Serve as a basis for advocacy for future programs to take a more integrated approach to supporting positive resilience in borderland areas: through the development of a wider resilience framework and by highlighting the successes and gaps of the PEACE III program, this study will construct a compelling argument for a unique approach to programming in the borderlands.

The study will target several audiences:

I. Pact, Inc: the research and analysis will provide valuable lessons on what works and what can be done better in the borderlands of Kenya, for the benefit of the current EUTF program and the development of future projects. It will also serve as a building block for the development of a larger resilience for peacebuilding framework, applicable to the global Pact portfolio.

II. USAID – Kenya: the study will seek to provide evidence of why peace matters (i.e. what it lays the foundation for) and how PEACE III has contributed to a wider impact beyond its peacebuilding objectives.

III. The wider donor community (EU, DFID, USAID – Washington, etc.): the work herein commissioned will sit alongside a wider advocacy effort to lobby for greater integration of programming and for regional approaches to building positive resilience.

PROPOSED AREAS OF ENQUIRY

The exploratory systems analysis will investigate the following areas of enquiry:

• What have been the wider impacts of the PEACE III program for borderland communities, beyond improved peace and security?

a. Hypothesis to test: Peace is a necessary foundation for strengthening sustainable positive resilience in the borderlands;

b. Hypothesis to test: PEACE III has contributed to strengthened sustainable positive resilience in the borderlands.

• How is sustained, positive resilience best supported by programs in the borderlands?

c. Hypothesis to test: programming is more likely to be effective in building sustained, positive resilience when it is integrated and context-aware.

Developing a research and analysis process to explore these areas of enquiry will help us understand where PEACE III has had in impact on wider resilience and development-related areas (in relation to the first area of enquiry above), as well as where it has not (in relation to the second area of enquiry), in order to inform thinking around future program design and implementation.

Deliverables:

The consultant will work with Pact to co-develop and deliver a range of products that strongly complement one another, and which offer value greater than the sum of their parts. We anticipate that a robust written report will be produced, capturing the main findings and analysis.

• Detailed workplan, within one week of contract award;
• Conceptual framework for positive resilience;
• Main report, capturing findings and analysis on the ‘why, what and how’;
• Development of an advocacy agenda in response to research findings;

Supervision

The Consultant will be supervised by the Country Director, Leslie Mitchell.

Period of Consultancy

This consultancy is expected to take a total of 30 days. To start in February and end by 30^th June 2019.

Assurance of confidentiality

All deliberations related to this consultancy, including all information collected from various meetings/documents shall be kept confidential and shall not be divulged to any third party either verbally or in writing or in any other form.

Submission requirements

Submit the following documents with their expression of interest for this consultancy:

• Company Profile
• Proposed work plan to perform the consultancy’s assignment (This should include activities, methodologies and time frame)
• A cost proposal