Lao GCF EBA Impact Modeling Consultant - Level B at United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

• Specifically, this consultancy will assess and quantify (model) the impacts of NBS and EBA intervention scenarios so that the economic value of those scenarios can be estimated.
• Assess flood drivers and hazards (impact indicators) Using as a starting point the report “Hydrological and climate risk assessment and development of hydrological /hydraulic models to inform EBA solutions for flood reduction in Vientiane, Paksan, Savannakhet and Pakse”, the consultant shall identify the main drivers of flooding and the flood hazards in Vientiane, Paksan, Pakse, and Kaysone.
• Hazards will include aspects such as direct risk to human life; damage to properties including their contents and infrastructure; disruption of traffic; health risk; disruption of business activities; environmental impact and other matters such as political considerations. This shall include hazards related to erosion and sedimentation.
• The Consultant is expected to assess the level of dependence between the flood mechanisms based on available data and the knowledge of the hydrologic/hydraulic system in general. The flood driver and hazards assessment should consider the interaction of large-scale river flooding from the Mekong River, local fluvial flooding from tributaries, pluvial flooding, and flash floods. The hazard assessment shall include mapping exposure of public and private assets, including residential buildings, industrial establishments, government buildings, infrastructure, and agriculture to flood impacts. Secondary impacts, such as loss of ecosystem services, must also be considered.
• The Consultant shall prepare a flood drivers and hazards report, providing a summary of results (maps) and findings, providing a narrative around flooding and its causes. The report will be succinct and aimed at a mainly technical but non-expert audience. A dissemination/verification meeting will be held following submission of the draft report, and any necessary adaptation or amendments will be incorporated into the final draft. Collaborate on development of EBA scenarios
• The EBA scenarios will be determined for each city by UNEP staff and consultants in consultation with the project management unit (PMU) and provincial authorities, and and will be based on, as a starting point, the World Bank NBS Opportunity Scan1 as well as recommendations for EBA measures from provincial ecosystem management plans2, spatial hydrological assessments3, and integrated climate-resilient flood management strategies4 (ICRFMS).
• The EBA Impact Modeling consultant is expected to review the draft scenarios and participate in the consultation process in so much as is possible under the budget constraints of the consultancy. Based on the consultant’s expert opinion and experience modelling river and drainage systems, the consultant shall propose adaptations or supplemental NBS and EBA measures.
• Model flood mitigation impacts of EBA scenarios The consultant shall model the potential flood mitigation impacts of proposed EBA implementation scenarios relative to a business-as-usual scenario. The modelling must be applied to realistically represent variations in rainfall, topography, soil type, land use, and adequately simulate floods' genesis.
• The modelling may need to be extended to locations outside the urban areas to capture all relevant run-off. The model design should allow a straightforward representation of land-use changes and human interventions.
• The model schematization must be set-up such that the model can evaluate a range of different types of measures including but not limited to additional storage areas, widening/deepening of tributaries, changes to land use, urban water management measures to reduce runoff, improvement of maintenance, pump capacity, canal widening/deepening, improvement of canal maintenance, green infrastructure or other nature-based interventions. etc.
• Particular attention should be given to the impact of planned and unplanned urban development (e.g. changes in both density and extent of urbanization, that will result in an increase in paved areas, increase in informal settlements near waterways, increase in populations vulnerable to flooding), and how these will affect the flood impacts.
• The Consultant shall prepare a draft and final flood impact assessment report, that includes an executive summary of results and findings, with maps, and include a narrative around flood risk and its main contributing factors (from the drivers and hazards assessment).
• The report shall consider risk indicators such as depth flooding, duration of flood, number of people affected, damage to assets, impacts to key sectors (e.g. agriculture, transport, commerce, supply chains, etc.), social impacts, and environmental and cultural damage. Risk mitigation measures shall be partly prioritized based on their robustness, i.e., their ability to deliver reduced flood losses under a range of future conditions. The report shall be aimed at a mainly technical but non-expert audience, and shall include an assessment of the robustness of solutions for a range of (uncertain) future scenarios due to climate and socio-economic changes, etc. Estimate implementation costs of EBA scenarios
• The Consultant shall enable the cost-benefit analysis with an estimate of costs of EBA and NBS implementation, considering capital costs, operations & maintenance costs over their functional lifespan, and other long-term budget needs.
• Detail any other implementation needs and constraints. Sketches or conceptual drawings of the proposed shortlist options will be prepared, and where possible, with outline dimensions and materials. Quantify secondary ecosystem service impacts The Consultant shall quantify expected secondary and indirect impacts of EBA scenarios (“Co-benefits”).
• Apart from direct benefits from flood risk reduction, assess indirect benefits associated with EBA scenarios, for instance erosion control, waste management, sedimentation, recreation, and improving the overall quality of life (heat mitigation, air quality, attractive landscape, spiritual wellness, etc.) Additionally, the Consultant shall conduct a high-level assessment of potential environment and social risks of the proposed investments for the highest ranked options for four cities as agreed with the responsible agencies.

Qualifications/special skills

• An advanced university degree in Applied Hydrology, Environmental Engineering, or a related field is required. A first university degree in related fields with a combination of two (2) years of professional and academic qualifications may be accepted in lieu of the advanced degree.
• A minimum of five (5) years of professional working experience in the field of hydrological modeling, ecosystem services modeling, or ecosystem-based adaptation assessment in developing countries is required.
• A minimum of three (3) years of professional working experience on flood impact assessment is required. Experience in and understanding of the political economy of development planning in South East Asia is desired.