Impact of recurring droughts and Youth's Transition to Urban at Save the Children

Context

More than 17.1 million people, nearly half of them children, are food insecure across Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya as one of the worst droughts in modern history sweeps the region. Pastoralism is the predominant livelihood in these arid and semi-arid areas. For Ethiopia, the current emergency lands in the wake of the 2015-2016 drought crisis, and in parts of Somalia there have been several years of failed rains. Massive livestock deaths and rates of malnutrition far beyond emergency thresholds have pushed normal coping mechanisms to their limits.

Save the Children has focused its humanitarian response on working with national and local governments to support life-saving measures. Building on some of the lessons learned from the 2011-2012 drought in terms of early warning, preparedness and early action, the current situation has overstretched the resilience and response mechanisms. While the Ethiopian government, and to some degree the Kenyan government, have been able to scale-up social protection programming through the Productive Safety Nets Programme and Hunger Safety Nets Programmes, respectively, gaps remain in the delivery of health, nutrition, food security, water and sanitation, education and child protection services. Donor assistance is working, but it is not solving the longer term problem of repeated stress to households.

Pastoralist populations have migrated in search of pasture and water, and in many cases have landed within the periphery of urban settlements, without their livestock. Some estimate that 80% of the livestock in Somalia have perished, leaving families without any source of viable livelihoods, and depleting sources of nutrition, especially for children. Migration also comes in the form of youth moving within and across borders in search of opportunities to assist their families, or to establish viable futures. These movements can be dangerous for young people, especially girls, and often require children to abandon their education to meet immediate needs for water, food and shelter which in course increases their vulnerability. Women and children are often seen as internally displaced as they attempt to live on the periphery of small towns in hopes of accessing assistance or social safety nets.

The forecast for rains to potentially replenish the region is poor. Average to below average rainfall has been the norm, with up-coming rain patterns expected to perform poorly as well. Recovery from this current drought will be feeble at best, and humanitarian assistance will continue in most parts of the affected regions.

Save the Children proposes to undertake research to understand the most effective mechanisms to assist pastoralist populations, those who are failing to recover via a resilience agenda, in transitioning out of a cycle of successive drought responses and into more diversified and/or sustainable livelihoods, while ensuring the protection of children. The focus of this research will be on understanding current urban migration trends, and especially the movement of youth, in order to develop recommendations on what organisations like Save the Children, and governments, should do next. It will also help to position donors to build on the gains they have made through resilience programming and the current humanitarian assistance.

Research will build on assessments conducted by Save the Children on the growing opportunities that exist for youth to transition to new livelihoods in urban and per-urban settings. In Mandera County, Kenya, a labour market assessment highlighted how youth are working across a number of sectors and vocations, including petty trading, transportation (motorbike taxis), casual work and a host of skills and services. However, factors such as the insufficiency of capital sources for business expansion and growth, lack of capacity to develop good marketing strategies, low business management skills, and limited opportunities for accessing skills and infrastructure limit the ability of enterprises to provide jobs. In response to this Save the Children has been testing the design of a youth livelihoods programme using a markets based systems change approach. The tests entailed research and identification of enterprises with high potential for growth; facilitation of identified traders in undertaking feasibility assessment of their business opportunities and linkages to neighbouring markets; exchange visits to learn from suppliers and large scale traders/merchants in Nairobi and exploring possibilities of micro-franchise arrangements; and trade fairs to showcase goods and services including financial services. Clearly looking broadly at the full market system is key to understanding how new entrants are sustainably integrated and do not displace other actors.

Preliminary findings indicate that the targeted traders have expanded businesses, improved profits and accessed opportunities from big scale suppliers for advanced training in motor cycle repairs, among others. Through placement of unemployed vulnerable youth into private enterprises, Save the Children has supported development of vocational skills (enterprise-based technical vocational education training - EBTVET) for 422 youth. Findings from the tracer (impact) study conducted six months after vocational placements for the first group of 167 youth ended indicate that 89% accessed employment and increased their monthly income by nearly 4 fold (from Kshs. 2,800 to 10,000 per month).

In Ethiopia a series of Save the Children studies in cities (including Mekelle, Sekota, Weldiya, Dire Dawa, and Jijiga) showed that there are more jobs than people to fill them, but there is a disconnect between employers and potential employees, most of whom are young. Employers, from small and large enterprises, want employees who are willing to commit for the longer term and are therefore willing to invest in their skill development in exchange for stable employment. However, low-skilled employees and new workforce entrants want short-term wage employment that enables them to move home or frequently switch jobs. These problems are compounded by cultural and social barriers to formal employment (such as low aspirations, gender barriers, clan dynamics, low status attached to certain forms of employment), which can drive unsafe youth migration to other regions.

With support from the MasterCard Foundation, Save the Children in Ethiopia has been working with cohorts of nearly 10,000 youth to make them ready for work in either employment or micro-enterprise, and then documenting the results. The results show that the biggest factors in successful youth employment are related not to formal vocational or 'hard' skills, but to 'soft' life and employability skills like empowerment/confidence, basic literacy and numeracy, ensuring work readiness (what to expect when entering the workforce), linkages to services such as savings, and understanding the private sector. Approximately, 80% of the youth involved are succeeding in their ventures and, with support to four other African countries; this program is providing robust learning about youth livelihood transition. Critical to the program is a recognition that success is not just about the right business, but ensuring that youth have access to information and services related to protection, education and reproductive health.

Based on the experience from this program and others globally and with the support of USAID, Save the Children has begun implementing the 2015-2019 Building the Potential of Youth (POTENTIAL) youth livelihoods program that works in 30+ woredas in 6 regions of the country. The orientation of the program has been adjusted based on earlier learning to a focus on basic skills and work readiness, and building up savings and assets to support livelihoods transitions. These programs have been exceptionally well-received and supported at the local level by local governments which are very interested in supporting their youth to transition to new opportunities, and adjust to different cultural and economic conditions. An integrated programming approach could potentially support more youth in transition.

Research Questions

Phase 1: Understanding youth transitions

1 What are the key socio-economic dynamics (push and pull factors) driving youth migration from rural to urban and peri-urban areas 2 What are the current policies and plans in the three countries supporting youth transitions How they are performing in practice, what are the gaps and for improvement 3 What are the protection mechanism in urban areas Which authorities in urban and rural areas are responsible for Children/Youth protection Their perspectives on child rights, protection, education etc. 4 What good practice already exists on programmes to support youth to make successful transitions, including impact and can be supported by a range of actors (e.g. local government, community based organisations, online service providers, etc.) 5 Who was successful in transitioning during previous droughts, and what can we learn from their success (or failure) Participatory work to understand young people's coping mechanisms at origin and destination:

• What are their aspirations Is it different for girls and boys
• What is youth's level of understanding of living in cities and their plans - were to journey, stay, work/ type of work, compensation, safety etc Difficulties faced
• How did they manage to cope with safety aspect What do they think should be done to address protection issues while on the move or at destination
• What do they think of their future in rural or urban areas
• Has their decision of moving to urban areas improved their lives

Approach

Consultant(s) will propose a methodology for collecting data and consolidating information, including use of online research, review of studies and reports, and conversations with key stakeholders or informants. If primary data collection is proposed in any of the countries, the consultant(s) will work closely with Save the Children country office teams to coordinate the study, ensure child safeguarding policies are upheld and appropriate approaches to child participation are used. All data collection tools will be approved by Save the Children. The methodology will outline steps and timeline, including sample sizes of any primary data collection.

Expected Outputs

• Summary literature review of existing studies, projects and initiatives, answering questions 1-5, with noted gaps in understanding. The Summary document will be no more than 20 pages with links to key literature, websites and thought groups for further collaboration.
• List of key services for protection, adolescent reproductive health and education in areas of youth transition (arid and semi-arid areas) and how youth are able to access these services and/or information, or barriers to access.

• A PowerPoint summary presentation, highlighting youth rural to urban transition issues and existing knowledge - no more than 20 slides.

• Potential methodology includes desk research and literature reviews

• Select number of Focus Groups with youth and Key Informant interviews in 1 or 2 of the 3 countries.
• Summary of research findings (coping strategies, successful and non-successful transitions, protection concerns) from field work with youth in Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya - short summaries of key themes in each country, and gender specific observations.
• Summarise lessons learned from specific Save the Children programmes, working on youth transitions (e.g. Youth in Action, SC Kenya enterprise-based TVET, etc.)

Timeline

Consultant(s) will be recruited by 15 September 2017.

Methodology and approach will be approved by Save the Children by 29 September 2017.

Presentation of findings to Save the Children will be held on 31 October 2017.

All final outputs will be completed and approved by 3 November 2017.

Estimated Level of Effort is 25 working days for lead consultant.

Working Relationships

The lead consultant will report to the Save the Children Regional Office, Regional Program and Quality Director, who will liaise with Save the Children country offices in the region.