Consultancy at International Union for Conservation of Nature

Background to the Proposed Project

The goal of the proposed project is to end recurring national drought emergencies in Kenya. This will be achieved, in part, by building the resilience of communities and ecosystems to future climate shocks and stresses, taking into consideration the unique conditions, challenges and opportunities of dry rangelands. These include: climate uncertainty, ecological fragility, seasonal and annual water deficits, historical marginalization, low human capital, large-scale commons, new (but rapidly developing) devolved public structures, and strong cultural grass-roots natural resource management institutions and practices.The proposed project has 4 components:

Component 1: Drought Risk Management and Coordination
Component 2: Restoration and Sustainable NRM for both Watershed and Rangeland Management
Component 3: Investment and Incentives for Economic Empowerment including Youth and Women
Component 4: Knowledge Management and Learning for Future Resilience Programming

The project will be located in thirteen of Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) counties: Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru and Taita Taveta. The project will use an Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) approach with emphasis on integration of restoration and sustainable land management options between natural resource sectors - rangelands, agriculture, forests, and water - as well as mainstreaming rangeland and forest concerns into other sectors such as energy and infrastructure. The project will provide science and policy guidance and dialogue mechanisms to the latter sectors to mitigate the impact of large infrastructure on dry rangeland social and ecological systems.

Tasks to be Undertaken

In support of the proposal development the following tasks will need to be carried out by the consultant in close coordination with IUCN, MoLAF and NDMA staff. These tasks will require close liaison with relevant government departments and project proponents for the collection or sourcing of necessary secondary data.

Task 1: Conduct a financial and economic appraisal
Deliverable: Financial and economic appraisal report including a financial model with sensitivity analysis and cost‐benefit analysis of the different interventions.

The financial and economic appraisal is required to build on Section B of the GCF proposal template (financing and cost information) and to complete Section E (expected performance against investment criteria).

• The appraisal will specify the adaptation and mitigation impact, taking into account the relevant and applicable sub‐criteria and assessment factors in the Fund’s investment framework.
• The appraisal will build on GCF indicators identified by the project partners in the draft proposal (section E.1.1).
• The appraisal will report on key impact potential indicators and targets.
• The appraisal will include the paradigm shift potential: the degree to which the proposal can catalyse impact beyond the one‐off investment, including:

o Potential for scaling up and replication.
o Potential for knowledge and learning.
o Contribution to the creation of an enabling environment.
o Contribution to a regulatory framework and policies.

• The appraisal will report on the efficiency and effectiveness (economic and financial soundness) of the action, including:

o Cost‐effectiveness and efficiency.
o Co‐financing, leveraging and mobilized long‐term investments.
o Financial viability.
o Internal Rate of Return (IRR).
o Key efficiency and effectiveness indicators.

• Building on Section E of the proposal, the appraisal will address section F.1. of the proposal (Economic and Financial Analysis), providing the narrative and rationale for the detailed economic and financial analysis (including the financial model) and providing economic and financial justification (both qualitative and quantitative) for the concessionality that GCF provides.

Task 2: Produce detailed project site mapping (GIS work)
Deliverable: remote sensing maps of all target counties and, where agreed with the partners, target landscapes, including the following information:

• Important topographical features (rivers, wetlands, water towers etc.).
• Significant infrastructure (e.g. settlements, roads, major water points).
• Climate data (e.g. rainfall and temperature gradients).
• Long‐term productivity trends.
• Land use and land cover.
• Soil Organic Carbon (subject to availability – e.g. APHIS).
• Data on land tenure/governance (subject to availability).

Task 3: Prepare a Gender and Youth Action Plan
Deliverables: detailed gender analysis of the target areas and action plan to integrate gender into project actions.

• Overview of the local context by County, disaggregated by ethnic group where relevant and according to availability of data.

o Economic activities/production.
o Social demographics.
o Health, literacy and other development indices.
o Cultural factors.
o Natural resources – use rights, responsibilities, differentiation of roles.
o Political and institutional factors, including national policies, quality of representation, conflicts.

• Work division by sex.

o Roles and responsibilities.
o Trends and changes in gender‐division of roles and implications.
o Seasonal patterns of differentiation of roles and responsibilities, particularly in relation to herd mobility.
o Gender related workloads/time budgets.

• Use, Access to, and Control of Resources, and Equitable Distribution of Costs and Benefits.

o Economic or productive resources.
o Political resources.
o Time.
o Benefits.

• Environmental Degradation and Impact by Sex/Gender.

o Roles and responsibilities.
o Impacts of environmental degradation on women and men.
o Impacts of environmental legislation and regulations.

• Cultural or Traditional Practices and Norms.

o Customary regulations regarding the use and conservation of natural resources.
o Common law rights over natural resources and informal agreements regulating the access to resources.
o Dependency on natural resources for social customs, cultural practices, or ceremonial or religious practices.
o Cultural or spiritual significance attached to a particular sites or species.

• Levels and quality of Social Participation.

o Decision making processes.
o Local institutions.
o Public institutions.
o Access to information.

• Recommendations for addressing gender inequities and risks through project implementation, including additional analyses, indicators of change, targeted‐interventions, and implementation principles.
• Further information: https://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/framework_gender_analysis.pdf

Task 4: Produce an environmental and social impact assessment of the proposed activities

• Assist IUCN staff in completing the IUCN’s Environment and Social Management System (ESMS) Questionnaire & Screening Report for field projects.
• Based on the ESMS screening results, submit a draft outline of the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment.
• Incorporate feedback into the outline and conduct the full Environmental and Social Impact Assessment.

Task 5: Complete a feasibility study

• Review the existing pre‐feasibly study undertaken at GCF Concept Note stage to answer critical questions related to the justification of the project proposal.
• Review the existing outline for the feasibility study attached as Annex 1 and carry out a gap analysis with concept to identify critical supporting information.
• Collect data through secondary sources and interviews.
• Complete the text of the feasibility study and ensure it is in the prescribed GCF format.

Some of the elements of the feasibility study will include:

• The study will report on the sustainable development potential and the wider benefits and priorities including the environmental, social and economic co‐benefits, including gendersensitive development impact.
• The study will report on the identified needs of the target population, including the vulnerability and financing needs of Kenya and the target counties and the vulnerability of specific beneficiary groups. This will include a description of financial, economic, social and institutional needs.
• The study will report on the extent of Country Ownership of the project and the capacity to implement the proposed actions. This will include reporting on Kenya’s national climate strategy and coherence of the project with existing plans and policies, including NAMAs, NAPAs and NAPs.

Task 6: Revise the current zero draft into a full draft proposal
Deliverable: GCF Draft Proposal in appropriate template, working closely with the International
Consultant and building on the zero draft and accommodating comments from project partners.

• Interview of key informants and consultations with local partners:

o During the consultancy inception period, submit a list of target informants for interview.
o Conduct interviews with informants as agreed with IUCN.
o Participate in the 4 County Cluster consultation and stakeholder meetings, which will be organised by IUCN and other project partners.

• Take a lead in consulting/interviewing appropriate entities and drafting/revising texts for the following sections of the GCF Proposal:

o Strategic Context – work with Kenya Climate Change Directorate.
o Regulations, Taxation and Insurance – in consultation with Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries and other Government agencies.
o Impact Potential – work with Kenya Climate Change Directorate, and Climate Change Focal Point of Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries.
o Key impact potential indicator ‐ work with Kenya Climate Change Directorate and Climate Change Focal Point of Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries.
o Contribution to regulatory framework and policies – consult with Kenya Climate Change Directorate.
o Sustainable Development Potential – undertake interviews with Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries, Council of Governors, and Kenya Climate Change Directorate.
o Country Ownership – Undertake interviews with Kenya Climate Change Directorate.
o Exit Strategy – consult with all stakeholders.
o Key efficiency and effectiveness indicators.
o Fully‐costed activity budget.

Summary List of Deliverables

1. Inception report (2 page outline of how the 6 tasks will be delivered).
2. Financial and economic appraisal report.
3. Remote sensing maps of all target counties.
4. Gender and youth action plan.
5. Environmental and social impact assessment of proposed activities.
6. Feasibility study.
7. A complete GCF draft proposal.
   Time frame and reporting
   29th June 2017 – Deadline for questions and feedback regarding the consultancy
   7th July 2017 – Deadline for all applications
   17th July 2017 – Contract Awarded
   20th July 2017 – Submission on Inception Report
   15th September 2017 – Submission of all other deliverables

ANNEX 1: Feasibility Study Outline

Title: Dryland Resilience Kenya
In thirteen of Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) counties, the project will use an Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) approach with emphasis on integration of restoration and sustainable land management options between natural resource sectors - rangelands, agriculture, forests, and water - as well as mainstreaming rangeland and forest concerns into other sectors such as energy and infrastructure. The project will provide science and policy guidance and dialogue mechanisms to the latter sectors to mitigate the impact of large infrastructure on dry rangeland social and ecological systems.

Outline of Feasibility Study

1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction
   2.1. Overview of Kenya’s ASALs and the Northern Frontier Counties
   2.2. Over-riding development and environment needs of the target area
   2.3. Over-view of the climate change context for the proposed intervention
3. Overview of Programme Area / Context
   3.1. Political/administrative (including key policies, devolution, strategies, frameworks, legislation regulations)
   3.2. Environmental/ecological
   3.3. Social context
   ï‚· While some broader contextual data might be useful, the main focus should be the sites selected for field activities, if known already,
   ï‚· Description of main social groups and their socio-cultural characteristics with particular emphasis on indigenous peoples and vulnerable groups (e.g. landless persons, the elderly, persons with disabilities, children or displaced persons)
   ï‚· Historical events relevant to the project and economic trends and prospects (relevant for the project and for different social groups);
   ï‚· Main economic activities and livelihood patterns, dependence on natural resources including illegal activities such as poaching or illegal wildlife trade;
   ï‚· Social issues and risks faced by particular social groups;
   ï‚· Existing or potential emerging conflicts between/among social groups relevant to the project;
   ï‚· Attitudes toward sustainable natural resource management;
   Throughout the analysis, differences between women and men should be highlighted including:
   ï‚· Different roles and responsibilities of men and women,
   ï‚· Relative distribution of rights, power and resources (including access to land),
   ï‚· Specific social issues, vulnerabilities, barriers and risks faced by women which are relevant for the project,
   ï‚· Specific and relevant knowledge, skills and experiences of women as livelihood/ food producer or relevant to natural resources management.
   An understanding of gender differences should not only enable the development of responses that are better suited to addressing gender-based inequalities and empowering women, but also, help to design an approach to rangeland management and restoration that is more efficient and sustainable.
   3.4. Economic context
   3.5. Institutional context - overview of relevant governmental and non-governmental institutions operating at the local, sub-national, national, regional and global level (when relevant) that are linked to the problem the project aims to address; including institutions representing interest of women, indigenous peoples or vulnerable groups or relevant other institutions linked to these 3 groups (e.g. producer groups, associations, NGOs etc.)
4. Climate change projections and priorities
   4.1. Detail by type of projected change – rainfall, temperature, extreme events
   4.2. Impacts of climate change – vulnerabilities of communities
   4.3. Impacts of climate change on the ecological systems in particular on rangeland landscapes
   and their services
   4.4. Overview of priorities in Kenya’s NAP
   4.5. Locally specific adaptation priorities
   4.6. Climate change risks and the mitigating benefits of rangelands (NDC)
5. Issues and Challenges for adaptation (programme area)
   5.1. Political/administrative (e.g. tenure, policy and institutional challenges)
   5.2. Environmental/ecological (e.g. climate variability, land use change, County-specific features)
   5.3. Social
   5.4. Economic (e.g. markets, finance)
   5.5. Data and knowledge gaps (including access and use of communities to data)
6. Who is doing what to address these challenges?
   6.1. (Include an overview of innovations that have been tested for these challenges)
   6.2. Political/administrative
   6.3. Environmental/ecological
   6.4. Social
   6.5. Economic
   6.6. Data and knowledge (include SHARED, PRAGA and others)
7. Needs assessment
   7.1. Gaps, needs and barriers for rangeland landscape restoration
   7.2. Institutional capacities (including of groups linked or defending rights/interests of women, indigenous peoples and vulnerable groups described above)
   7.3. Information needs
   7.4. Desired Future State
8. Theory of change
   8.1. Theory of change (including action excluded from the scope of the programme and assumptions)
   8.2. Objectives/outcomes of proposed programme
   8.3. Paradigm shift (fund level impacts)
   8.4. Project/program outcomes
   8.5. Target populations, disaggregated by gender, where possible also indicating indigenous groups and vulnerable groups
   8.6. Target landscapes
   8.7. Priority areas for intervention
9. Intervention Options/feasibility
   9.1. “Do Nothing” Option
   9.2. Action Option: rangeland landscape restoration
   ï‚· Consider on opportunities for gender mainstreaming including
   ï‚· providing economic or social benefits to women
   ï‚· improve rights situation
   ï‚· capacity building
   ï‚· making use of women knowledge and skills to increase sustainability of intervention
   ï‚· Consider opportunities for enhancing benefits to indigenous peoples and to vulnerable groups
   9.3. Comparison of Options (tabulated)
   9.4. Cost-benefit analysis of proposed actions and financial viability, cost-effectiveness and efficiency
   9.5. Viability of main actions, including viability of developing supporting financial services
   9.6. Stakeholder Engagement plan describing what stakeholders will be involved during implementation and in which role, in particular how women will be involved
   9.7. Risk assessment, risk factors and mitigation
   ï‚· Environmental and social risks (ESMS),
   ï‚· related to the four ESMS Standards (Involuntary Resettlement and Access Restrictions, Indigenous Peoples, Cultural Heritage and Biodiversity and Sustainable Use of Natural Resources),
   ï‚· other E&S Impacts,
   ï‚· gender risks, and
   ï‚· risks from the project failing to take risks from climate change changes into consideration and as such increasing social or ecological vulnerability (Kaori, this is one of the ESMS risks areas but I am not sure whether we need to include this as it is the explicit purpose of the project to address this)
   ï‚· Operational/technical risks
   ï‚· Financial risks
10. References
11. Appendices
    11.1. County fact sheets