Consultant: Political Economy Analysis (PEA) of the Mandera Triangle Cluster at Pact World

General Background

The shared border areas of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya, also known as the Mandera Triangle, have experienced armed conflict, violent crime, extremist attacks, political instability and state failure for years. Insecurity stems from a complex mix of resource competition, clan power struggles and, more recently, the presence of armed terror groups. The existence of tri-country boundaries creates further complexities related to border management and security between administrations with varying capacities and agendas. Borderlands are often the site of illicit activities, such as trade in weapons, people and goods. These challenges become harder to manage among migratory populations.
Funded by the European Union Trust Fund for Africa, the Regional Approaches for Sustainable Conflict Management and Integration (RASMI) project adopts a conflict systems-based approach to promote peace-building, conflict management, and conflict resolutioncapacity at the community and cross-border levels. It is part of the EU's programme for Collaboration in the Cross-Border areas of the Horn of Africa, providing over 60 million euros of investment to prevent and mitigate the impact of local conflict and to promote economic development and greater resilience in four different cross-border regions.
RASMI, which means “reliable” in Somali, targets stakeholders in the Mandera Triangle who are most vulnerable to engaging in conflict, irregular migration, and recruitment into militias and terror groups. These stakeholders include youth, internally displaced people, and pastoralist drop-outs and marginalised ethnic groups. At the same time, RASMI engages local government agencies, women, religious leaders, security forces and the private sector – those who have the greatest capacity for managing conflicts and promoting peace.

Specific Background

In order to contribute to the prevention of local conflicts in the cross-border areas, mitigating the impact of conflicts and strengthening the broader institutional systems for conflict prevention, response, management and potentially resolution, and as part of the inception phase of the EUTF project, Pact will conduct a Political Economy Analysis (PEA) to inform the project and the Consortium strategy and intervention plan in the CPMR sector for the coming three years of programming.
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Scope of Work

This ToR is to manage the delivery of a Political Economy Analysis (PEA) in Mandera Triangle cluster, to provide an understanding of the contexts and conditions for the Government, civil society and other conflict management actors to improve performance in conflict management. The assignment consists of the following aspects:

• Develop an appropriate PEA methodology and APEA framework through a participatory workshop with the RASMI consortia. The methodology and exact questions to be answered by the political economy analysis will develop over the course of the workshop as the teams and the consultant consider their initial analysis. The teams will be prepared to identify and explore emerging political economy questions as the research is carried out.
• Demonstrate and support the development of the teams to interview and collect data through an experiential learning process that develops their skills and guides the teams to undertake field work to inform the final analysis.
• Collate and analyse the findings
• Write up the reportThe Lead Analyst will guide the team during the collection of data and interviews.
  The aim of the PEAs is to provide an understanding and analysis of the political and economic constraints and opportunities for change in the CPMR system, leading to a set of specific recommendations and that can be turned into operational delivery objectives as part of Pact’s programme strategy.
  The specific objectives of the PEA are to understand:
• What the dynamics and incentives are of the government, institutions, civil society, business sector and other stakeholders (the drivers of change) that can support the emergence of a more effective conflict management system. Consideration should also be given to the capability of these actors and drivers for change;
• How interests and incentives can be combined to create levers of change that provide opportunities for Pact interventions, or when these interests may resist change such that an intervention is unlikely to be feasible;
• Who are the current main “winners” and “losers” in this arena, and what are the implications for Pacts programme in these areas that will support strengthened conflict management and stability, and stakeholder efforts to address drivers of conflict;
• Understand how the formal and informal policy arenas and ways of doing business shape success or failure in the management of conflict;
• Understand how local capacities and institutions are/can address the threats of radicalization and extremism;
• How investment and future government and stakeholder development plans may affect the system and potentially create losers amongst poor people or encourage drivers of migration.

Deliverables

• An approach and methodology and work plan for conducting this PEA. The work plan will include indicative activities, per phases (desk research, consultation/meetings, analysis, report drafting and finalisation).
• A final report on the political economy of the CPMR and conflict stakeholders (including the business sector). The report structure will be agreed with the Pact team before completion. The report shall contain, at least:
• The methodology and approach developed by the teams;
• A final political analysis of the CPMR sectors in the cluster area , outlining the key issues in the political economy as they impact on conflict-affected communities, the peacebuilding institutions and the potential for Pact and partners to work with stakeholders – including private sector companies as levers of change to promote stability and social cohesion. These should include:
• Roles and responsibilities of different actors: who are the key stakeholders in the clusters and what are their functions in CPMR sector?
• The ‘peace ecosystem structure’: what are the relationships and balance between the key stakeholders and institutions such as government departments, peace structures, traditional leaders, large companies, small-scale enterprises, and individuals?
• What are the Government policies, regulations and institutional arrangements on both sides of the relevant borders that affect the CPMR sector?
• Power relations: to what extent is power vested in the hands of specific stakeholders, companies and/or individuals? How do different interest groups, including government influence the sector and conflict dynamics and how it functions? Are certain groups/ethnicities/gender groups excluded from playing positive roles in peacebuilding?
• Historical legacies: what is the past history that affects CPMR, including government and the business sector actions? How does this influence current stakeholder perceptions and incentives?
• Local issues: what are the sensitive issues such as land rights, business practices, sources of conflict and environmental and cultural sensitivities in these clusters?
• What are the dominant ’rules of the game’ both formal and informal which shape behaviours and views on conflict and its management? To what extent may these serve to constrain change?
• Corruption and rent-seeking: is there significant corruption and rent-seeking that affects the sector? Who benefits most from this? How is patronage being used?
• A set of specific and actionable recommendations for Pact and consortium members to consider in its strategy.

Duration and schedule

• Dates for assignment are for 6 weeks; estimated start date: March 5 – April 13.